Business Manual

As John and I finish off our Mobile Muse blogging (for the time being, anyway) the time is right to look towards the future. Without claiming to be experts in this industry, we will try to use our imagination and passion for all things mobile to try to guess the things to come. Here are my top five predictions for Canadian wireless industry for the next five years:

CeBIT closed its doors a few days ago. Simultaneously, Hannover let out a collective sigh of relief as the throngs of red-eyed, sleep deprived exhibitors and business people who had taken over the city departed in mass. Now that all the fuss is over, it’s time to sit back and reflect on what we saw and didn’t see at this year’s CeBIT and make some predictions about the future.

This year’s CeBIT saw the evolution of handsets to support better existing carrier services. Texting and music based handsets were very popular. Better texting handsets will result in more text messages. Better music phones will result in more music downloads. By making revenue generating services easier to use carriers stand only to benefit. Carriers will undoubtedly clamor after the handsets which best implement these services. Similarly the new generation of TV and navigation based handsets hope to make the introduction of these services both painless and obvious to the consumer to spur their adoption. The growth of the handset markets showcase both the strength and diversity of the industry as wildly exotic designs flourish next door to traditional candy bars and sliders. Overall, CeBIT was very positive news for carriers and manufactures.

Handset makers at CeBIT presented mobiles which specialized in many areas. TV, cameras, texting and music, all were present in numbers. Another area of phone specialization targeted specific age demographics. In Canada we’ve already seen a number of phone models designed for kids, like the FireFly. But what about the fastest growing segment of the population? What about phones for the elderly? How about a phone for my Grandma?

The Austrian company Emporia thinks they’ve found my answer. Their over-sized Life phone offers friendly buttons (read you can see them on Google Earth), a monochrome screen and clear text, supports calling, texting and little more. My Grandma would probably be right at home with the phone. The only problem I can see with it is that my Nokia from 1999 does the exact same things. And in the exact same way. And has Snake. It honestly might as well be the same phone in a different case. I’m willing to bet my Grandma would just as happy using it as Emporia’s latest creation.

    Walking through the Samsung or O2 booths at CeBIT is a bit like cutting your way through a jungle. These over-sized retail stores offer a glimpse at the latest handsets. If you can get to them. Push past the gadget hungry crowds and armies of conscripted sales reps and you'll find the reason we came. Future Parc is the ugly duckling of CeBIT. Conveniently located at the absolute end of the conference grounds, Future Park casts aside the glitz and glamour of the main halls for real innovation (not the kind written on 500 foot banner ads).

    Perhaps the most relevant to Vancouver's mobile scene, Compass2008 is a digital travel guide to Beijing developed by the German Research Center for Artificial Intelligence and the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology in conjunction with a number of other partners. Compass is essentially a pocket translator, built to allow for basic tourist conversation (where is? how much? etc) while providing some helpful cultural hints along the way.

    Our stranded tourist begins by selecting a phrase in their native language (currently supported are English and German). The device then speaks the equivalent phrase aloud in Chinese and also displays it on the screen in written Chinese. The tourist then hands the device to the Chinese speaker who can then select a response from a list of displayed Chinese options. Since most tourist conversation follow a linear structure (Is there a free table? Can we order food? Can we pay?) the application arranges phrases in a manner such that the conversation can continue naturally without hunting around menus for the next phrase.  Though limited, this form of conversation helps anxious tourists get their barrings. Additionally, Compass tries to facilitate deeper cultural understanding, advising tourists to be experimental in ordering food by providing hints about Chinese dishes through filtering menus (Are you looking for sweet or sour food? Chicken or Pork?). It provides a list of recommended establishments serving said meals. Similarly tacked on are basic information about shopping, landmarks and maps of the city.

I am very grateful to the United States Department of Defense for that ARPANET project they had. By keeping most ot corporate America out of the development process ARPA created something that revolutionized the way we communicate without trying to make the big bucks. Imagine a world where one would have to pay for every website viewed and every email received... Not a pleasant prospect, but one that every telco would definitely adore (just look at the recent Network Neutrality debate). Teluses and Bells of the world missed their chance to control the Internet.